A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
