Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.