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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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